Venable J M, Ma Q L, Ginter P M, Duncan W J
School of Business, Samford University, Birmingham, AL.
Public Health Rep. 1993 Nov-Dec;108(6):701-10.
Scenario analysis is a strategic planning technique used to describe and evaluate an organization's external environment. A methodology for conducting scenario analysis using the Jefferson County Department of Health and the national, State, and county issues confronting it is outlined. Key health care and organizational issues were identified using published sources, focus groups, questionnaires, and personal interviews. The most important of these issues were selected by asking health department managers to evaluate the issues according to their probability of occurrence and likely impact on the health department. The high-probability, high-impact issues formed the basis for developing scenario logics that constitute the story line holding the scenario together. The results were a set of plausible scenarios that aided in strategic planning, encouraged strategic thinking among managers, eliminated or reduced surprise about environmental changes, and improved managerial discussion and communication.
情景分析是一种用于描述和评估组织外部环境的战略规划技术。本文概述了一种利用杰斐逊县卫生部以及该部门所面临的国家、州和县级问题来进行情景分析的方法。通过公开资料、焦点小组、问卷调查和个人访谈确定了关键的医疗保健和组织问题。通过要求卫生部门经理根据问题发生的可能性及其对卫生部门可能产生的影响来评估这些问题，从而选出其中最重要的问题。高可能性、高影响的问题构成了制定情景逻辑的基础，这些情景逻辑构成了将情景串联起来的故事情节。结果得到了一组合理的情景，有助于战略规划，鼓励管理人员进行战略思考，消除或减少对环境变化的意外情况，并改善管理讨论和沟通。
