Strauss D, Shavelle R
Department of Statistics, University of California, Riverside 92521, USA.
J Insur Med. 1998;30(2):96-108.
The life expectancy is an important summary measure of an individual's prognosis for survival. The life table is the preferred method for computing life expectancies, but it is not always feasible. We show that for several chronic disabilities, the logarithms of the age-specific mortality ratios (relative to the general population) decline linearly with age, reaching parity at age 85 or older. This, combined with a standard modeling of an individual's current mortality rate, yields a set of age-specific mortality rates that can be used to produce a "customized" life table. The life expectancy is then immediately available. In a series of empirical comparisons the method performed better than an assumption of constant excess death rate (EDR), and much better than one of constant mortality ratio (MR). The method may be useful for a variety of non-progressive disabilities, such as cerebral palsy and injuries of the brain or spinal cord.
预期寿命是衡量个体生存预后的一项重要综合指标。生命表是计算预期寿命的首选方法，但并非总是可行。我们发现，对于几种慢性残疾，特定年龄死亡率与总体人群相比的对数随年龄呈线性下降，在85岁及以上达到持平。这一点，再结合个体当前死亡率的标准模型，可得出一组特定年龄死亡率，用于生成“定制”生命表。预期寿命随即可得。在一系列实证比较中，该方法的表现优于恒定超额死亡率（EDR）假设，且远优于恒定死亡率（MR）假设。该方法可能适用于多种非进行性残疾，如脑瘫以及脑或脊髓损伤。
