Rajala-Schultz P J, Gröhn Y T
Department of Population Medicine and Diagnostic Sciences, College of Veterinary Medicine, Cornell University, Ithaca, NY 14853, USA.
Prev Vet Med. 1999 Jul 20;41(2-3):195-208. doi: 10.1016/s0167-5877(99)00046-x.
The effects of 15 diseases on time until culling were studied in 39,727 Finnish Ayrshire cows that calved during 1993 and were followed until the next calving or culling. The diseases studied were: dystocia, milk fever, retained placenta, displacement of the abomasum, metritis, non-parturient paresis, ketosis, rumen disorders, acute mastitis, hypomagnesemia, lameness, traumatic reticuloperitonitis, anestrus, ovarian cysts, and teat injuries. Survival analysis, using the Cox proportional hazards model, was performed and diseases were modeled as time-dependent covariates. Different stages of lactation when culling can occur were also considered. Parity, calving season and herd were included as covariates in every model. Parity had a significant effect on culling, the risk of culling being four times higher for a cow in her sixth or higher parity than for a first parity cow. The effects of diseases varied according to when the diseases occurred and when culling occurred. Mastitis, teat injuries and lameness had a significant effect on culling throughout the whole lactation. Anestrus and ovarian cysts had a protective effect against culling at the time when they were diagnosed. In general, diseases affected culling decisions mostly at the time of their occurrence. The effect seemed to decrease with time from the diagnosis of the disease. However, milk fever, dystocia and metritis also had a significant effect on culling at the end of the lactation.
在1993年产犊且被跟踪至下次产犊或被淘汰的39727头芬兰艾尔夏奶牛中,研究了15种疾病对淘汰时间的影响。所研究的疾病包括:难产、产乳热、胎盘滞留、真胃移位、子宫炎、非分娩性轻瘫、酮病、瘤胃疾病、急性乳腺炎、低镁血症、跛行、创伤性网胃炎、乏情、卵巢囊肿和乳头损伤。采用Cox比例风险模型进行生存分析,并将疾病作为时间依存性协变量进行建模。还考虑了可能发生淘汰时的不同泌乳阶段。胎次、产犊季节和牛群作为协变量纳入每个模型。胎次对淘汰有显著影响,第六胎及以上胎次的奶牛被淘汰的风险是头胎奶牛的四倍。疾病的影响因疾病发生时间和淘汰时间的不同而有所差异。乳腺炎、乳头损伤和跛行在整个泌乳期对淘汰有显著影响。乏情和卵巢囊肿在被诊断时对淘汰有保护作用。一般来说,疾病大多在其发生时影响淘汰决策。从疾病诊断开始,这种影响似乎随时间减弱。然而,产乳热、难产和子宫炎在泌乳期末对淘汰也有显著影响。