Caporale V, Giovannini A, Calistri P, Conte A
Istituto Zooprofilattico Sperimentale dell'Abruzzo e del Molise G. Caporale, Teramo, Italy.
Rev Sci Tech. 1999 Dec;18(3):729-40. doi: 10.20506/rst.18.3.1196.
The authors propose a contribution to the possible revision of Chapters 1.4.1. and 1.4.2. of the International Animal Health Code (Code) of the Office International des Epizooties (OIE). In particular, data are presented to illustrate some of the inadequacies of both the rationale and the results of the method for risk assessment reported in the Code. The method suggested by the Code for risk assessment is based on the calculation of the 'probability of the occurrence of at least one outbreak' of a given disease following the importation of a given quantity of either live animals or animal products (unrestricted risk estimate). This is usually undertaken when dealing with rare events. For a country such as Italy, this method may not be particularly useful as the frequency of disease outbreaks is what should be estimated, so as to provide decision makers with appropriate and relevant information. Practical use of risk information generated by the use of the OIE risk assessment method for swine vesicular disease (SVD) would have encouraged the Chief Veterinary Officer of Italy to prohibit all imports of swine from the Netherlands and Belgium for at least two years in the early 1990s, with the consequential heavy economic losses for both Italy and the exporting countries. On the contrary, the number of actual outbreaks of the disease due to direct imports of swine from Member States of the European Union (EU), which occurred in Italy in 1992, 1993 and 1994 was very low (two to five outbreaks due to direct imports of swine from the Netherlands and one to two from Belgium). An example of a method for assessing the risks associated with high volumes of trade in commodities is also described. This method is based on the Monte Carlo simulation and provides the information required to evaluate the costs of the strategies compared. The method can be used to predict the number of outbreaks which are likely to occur following importation and enables a comparison to be made of alternative safeguards. This would lead to the selection of the most cost-effective one. The comparison is conducted using risk curves and allows a quantitative evaluation and comparison to be made of various scenarios, varying from an absence of safeguards to combinations of various safeguards.
作者们提议为国际兽疫局（OIE）《国际动物卫生法典》（法典）第1.4.1章和1.4.2章的可能修订做出贡献。特别是，本文提供了数据，以说明法典中报告的风险评估方法的基本原理和结果存在的一些不足之处。法典建议的风险评估方法基于计算在进口一定数量的活体动物或动物产品后某种特定疾病“至少发生一次疫情的概率”（无限制风险估计）。这通常用于处理罕见事件。对于意大利这样的国家，这种方法可能不是特别有用，因为应该估计疾病爆发的频率，以便为决策者提供适当和相关的信息。在20世纪90年代初，实际运用OIE猪水疱病（SVD）风险评估方法所产生的风险信息，可能会促使意大利首席兽医官禁止从荷兰和比利时进口所有猪至少两年，这将给意大利和出口国都带来巨大的经济损失。相反，1992年、1993年和1994年在意大利因直接从欧盟成员国进口猪而实际发生的该病疫情数量非常低（因直接从荷兰进口猪导致两到五次疫情，从比利时进口猪导致一到两次疫情）。本文还描述了一种评估大宗商品大量贸易相关风险的方法。该方法基于蒙特卡洛模拟，并提供评估所比较策略成本所需的信息。该方法可用于预测进口后可能发生的疫情数量，并能够对替代保障措施进行比较。这将导致选择最具成本效益的保障措施。使用风险曲线进行比较，并允许对从无保障措施到各种保障措施组合的各种情景进行定量评估和比较。
