Mendez D, Warner K E
Department of Health Management and Policy, School of Public Health, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor 48109-2029, USA.
Am J Public Health. 2000 Mar;90(3):401-3. doi: 10.2105/ajph.90.3.401.
This study examined the changes in smoking initiation and cessation needed to realize the Healthy People 2010 national adult smoking prevalence objective (13%).
Using data from the National Health Interview Surveys, we calculated smoking prevalence over time with a dynamic population demographics model, examining the effects of changes in smoking initiation and cessation.
The draft objective is unattainable solely through decreases in smoking initiation. It could be achieved through smoking cessation alone only if cessation rates immediately increased by a factor of more than 3.5. Assuming plausible decreases in initiation and increases in cessation, the draft objective is virtually unattainable.
The health objectives should challenge the status quo but be achievable. Formal analysis often can assist in establishing reasonable objectives.
本研究探讨了为实现《健康人民2010》的全国成人吸烟率目标(13%)所需的吸烟起始率和戒烟率的变化。
利用国家健康访谈调查的数据,我们通过动态人口统计学模型计算了不同时间的吸烟率,研究吸烟起始率和戒烟率变化的影响。
仅通过降低吸烟起始率无法实现该初步目标。仅靠戒烟实现该目标的话,戒烟率需立即提高3.5倍以上。假设吸烟起始率合理下降且戒烟率上升,该初步目标几乎无法实现。
健康目标应挑战现状但要可实现。正式分析通常有助于确立合理目标。