Pechmann C, Dixon P, Layne N
Graduate School of Management, University of California, Irvine 92697, USA.
Am J Public Health. 1998 Sep;88(9):1362-7. doi: 10.2105/ajph.88.9.1362.
This study assessed whether US and Canadian smoking reduction objectives for the year 2000 are attainable. The United States seeks to cut smoking in its population to 15%; the Canadian goal is 24%.
Smoking data were obtained for the United States (1974-1994) and Canada (1970-1995) for the overall populations and several age-sex subpopulations. Analyses estimated trends, future prevalences, and the likelihood of goal attainment. Structural time-series models were used because of their ability to fit a variety of trends.
The findings indicate that smoking has been declining steadily since the 1970s, by approximately 0.7 percentage points a year, in both countries. Extrapolating these trends to the year 2000, the US prevalence will be 21% and the Canadian prevalence 24%.
If the current trends continue, the Canadian goal seems attainable, but the US goal does not. The US goal is reachable only for 65-to 80-year-olds, who already have low smoking prevalences. It appears that both countries must increase their commitment to population-based tobacco control.
本研究评估了美国和加拿大2000年的吸烟率降低目标是否可以实现。美国试图将其人口中的吸烟率降至15%；加拿大的目标是24%。
获取了美国（1974 - 1994年）和加拿大（1970 - 1995年）总体人群以及几个年龄 - 性别亚人群的吸烟数据。分析估计了趋势、未来患病率以及实现目标的可能性。使用结构时间序列模型是因为它们能够拟合各种趋势。
研究结果表明，自20世纪70年代以来，两国的吸烟率一直在稳步下降，每年约下降0.7个百分点。将这些趋势推算到2000年，美国的患病率将为21%，加拿大的患病率将为24%。
如果当前趋势持续下去，加拿大的目标似乎可以实现，但美国的目标则无法实现。美国的目标仅对65至80岁的人群可行，他们的吸烟率已经很低。看来两国都必须加大对基于人群的烟草控制的投入。
