An assessment of US and Canadian smoking reduction objectives for the year 2000.

OBJECTIVES

This study assessed whether US and Canadian smoking reduction objectives for the year 2000 are attainable. The United States seeks to cut smoking in its population to 15%; the Canadian goal is 24%.

METHODS

Smoking data were obtained for the United States (1974-1994) and Canada (1970-1995) for the overall populations and several age-sex subpopulations. Analyses estimated trends, future prevalences, and the likelihood of goal attainment. Structural time-series models were used because of their ability to fit a variety of trends.

RESULTS

The findings indicate that smoking has been declining steadily since the 1970s, by approximately 0.7 percentage points a year, in both countries. Extrapolating these trends to the year 2000, the US prevalence will be 21% and the Canadian prevalence 24%.

CONCLUSIONS

If the current trends continue, the Canadian goal seems attainable, but the US goal does not. The US goal is reachable only for 65-to 80-year-olds, who already have low smoking prevalences. It appears that both countries must increase their commitment to population-based tobacco control.