Shimazaki T
Department of Psychology, School of Humanities, Kwansei Gakuin University, Nishinomiya.
Shinrigaku Kenkyu. 1999 Dec;70(5):409-16. doi: 10.4992/jjpsy.70.409.
The assessment process of contingency between two binary events was examined in the present experiments using university students. Some researchers have obtained a learning curve in judging contingency and have thereby applied an associative model to an explanation of human contingency judgment. Other researchers, however, claimed that the task structure did not adequately reflect the structure of 2 x 2 contingency tables and failed to obtain learning curves. After having resolved methodological problems of task structure and procedure (Experiments 1 & 2), we demonstrated little evidence of learning curve in judging contingency (Experiment 3). These results were discussed in terms of associative viewpoints and rule-based models.
在本实验中，我们以大学生为研究对象，对两个二元事件之间的偶然性评估过程进行了研究。一些研究人员在判断偶然性时获得了学习曲线，进而应用关联模型来解释人类的偶然性判断。然而，其他研究人员则认为，任务结构未能充分反映2×2偶然性表的结构，因此未能获得学习曲线。在解决了任务结构和程序的方法学问题后（实验1和实验2），我们在判断偶然性时几乎没有发现学习曲线的证据（实验3）。我们从关联观点和基于规则的模型的角度对这些结果进行了讨论。
