Stavem K
Stiftelse for helsetjenesteforskning (HELTEF), Sentralsykehuset i Akershus, Nordbyhagen.
Tidsskr Nor Laegeforen. 2000 Jan 10;120(1):100-1.
Scenarios are known from the film industry, as detailed descriptions of films. This has given name to scenario analysis, a method for long term planning using descriptions of composite future pictures. This article is an introduction to the scenario method. Scenarios describe plausible, not necessarily probable, developments. They focus on problems and questions that decision makers must be aware of and prepare to deal with, and the consequences of alternative decisions. Scenarios are used in corporate and governmental planning, and they can be useful and complementary to traditional planning and extrapolation of past experience. The method is particularly useful in a rapidly changing world with shifting external conditions.
在电影行业中，情节梗概是对电影的详细描述。由此产生了情景分析这一名称，它是一种利用对未来综合图景的描述进行长期规划的方法。本文是对情景分析法的介绍。情景描述的是看似合理但不一定会发生的发展情况。它们关注决策者必须意识到并准备应对的问题和疑问，以及不同决策的后果。情景分析法应用于企业和政府规划中，对传统规划和基于过去经验的推断而言，它可能是有用的补充。在外部条件不断变化的快速发展的世界中，该方法尤为有用。
