Neiner Jennifer A, Howze Elizabeth H, Greaney Mary L
National Center for Chronic Disease Prevention and Health Promotion, CDC, Atlanta, Georgia, USA.
Health Promot Pract. 2004 Jan;5(1):69-79. doi: 10.1177/1524839903257692.
Scenario planning is a method for anticipating possible alternative futures. Used widely in business applications, it allows planners to anticipate problems, reevaluate assumptions, and reflect on consequences of those alternative futures. In this article, scenario planning is applied to public health, specifically to illustrate the four steps in scenario planning for public health using a health department's desire to address chronic disease prevention and control. An unhealthy diet and physical inactivity are considered to be key risk factors. The scenarios are presented in table format and are for illustration purposes only. Many other plausible scenarios could be constructed. Scenario planning allows stake-holders to define a desired, shared vision of the future, but more important, they can better prepare public health professionals to be successful in a constantly changing environment.
情景规划是一种预测可能的未来替代情景的方法。它在商业应用中广泛使用，使规划者能够预见问题、重新评估假设，并思考这些替代未来的后果。在本文中，情景规划应用于公共卫生领域，具体来说，是通过一个卫生部门致力于解决慢性病预防和控制问题，来说明公共卫生情景规划的四个步骤。不健康的饮食和缺乏身体活动被认为是关键风险因素。这些情景以表格形式呈现，仅用于说明目的。还可以构建许多其他合理的情景。情景规划使利益相关者能够定义一个期望的、共同的未来愿景，但更重要的是，它能让公共卫生专业人员更好地做好准备，在不断变化的环境中取得成功。
