Wharton School, University of Pennsylvania, Wynnewood, Pennsylvania, USA.
J Am Coll Radiol. 2010 May;7(5):369-73. doi: 10.1016/j.jacr.2009.12.012.
Modern business science has many tools that can be of great value to radiologists and their practices. One of the most important and underused is long-term planning. Part of the problem has been the pace of change. Making a 5-year plan makes sense only if your develop robust scenarios of possible future conditions you will face. Scenario analysis is one of many highly regarded tools that can improve your predictive capability. However, as with many tools, it pays to have some training and to get practical tips on how to improve their value. It also helps to learn from other people's mistakes rather than your own. The authors discuss both theoretical and practical issues in using scenario analysis to improve your planning process. They discuss actionable ways this set of tools can be applied in a group meeting or retreat.
现代商业科学有许多工具可以为放射科医生及其实践带来巨大价值。其中最重要但未被充分利用的工具之一是长期规划。部分问题在于变化的速度。只有在您对未来可能面临的情况进行稳健的场景分析的情况下，制定 5 年计划才有意义。情景分析是许多备受推崇的工具之一，可以提高您的预测能力。但是，与许多工具一样，接受一些培训并获得有关如何提高其价值的实用技巧是值得的。从他人的错误中吸取教训而不是自己犯错误也很有帮助。作者讨论了使用情景分析来改进您的规划过程中的理论和实际问题。他们讨论了在小组会议或务虚会上应用这组工具的可行方法。
