Alcayna Tilly, Kellerhaus Franziska, Tremblay Leo, Fletcher Chloe, Goodermote Rachel, Santos-Vega Mauricio, Chaves-Gonzalez Juan, Bailey Meghan, Rao V Bhargavi, Lowe Rachel
Red Cross Red Crescent Climate Centre, The Hague, Netherlands
Centre on Climate Change and Planetary Health, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, UK.
BMJ Glob Health. 2025 Jul 23;10(7):e017721. doi: 10.1136/bmjgh-2024-017721.
In the humanitarian sector, anticipatory action entails acting ahead of predicted hazardous events to prevent or mitigate potential impacts and needs. It leverages early warnings to bridge preparedness and response, with a core principle being the provision of ex-ante emergency funding for preagreed early actions. Traditionally applied to extreme climatic events, there is growing interest in integrating anticipatory action into disease outbreak preparedness and response. We present an analytical framework for trigger development for climate-sensitive infectious disease outbreaks based on a review of existing and emerging practices from the Red Cross Red Crescent Movement, United Nations agencies and Médecins Sans Frontières since 2014. We propose that, depending on data availability, there are four broad approaches for trigger development. First, the humanitarian sector could scale up the release of prearranged funding based on real-time surveillance data (eg, suspected cases) while other emergency funding is secured. Second, the humanitarian sector could take advantage of weather forecasts and seasonal climate forecasts to anticipate outbreaks linked to extreme climatic events, anomalous climatic conditions or highly suitable climatic conditions. Third, to extend the lead time available for intervention, the humanitarian sector could use observed environmental and socioeconomic transmission risk factors (eg, population displacement, overcrowding, presence of vectors, weather changes) in combination with real-time surveillance data to improve early detection or curb a rapid increase in cases, while other emergency funding is secured. Fourth, data-driven outbreak forecasting using seasonal forecasts can help extend the lead time further to make informed decisions about future risks. We present examples and discuss the trade-offs between approaches. As anticipatory action for outbreaks becomes established, we expect that future applications will integrate all four approaches.
在人道主义领域， anticipatory action 意味着在预测的危险事件发生之前采取行动，以预防或减轻潜在影响和需求。它利用早期预警来衔接备灾和应对工作，其核心原则是为预先商定的早期行动提供事前应急资金。 anticipatory action 传统上应用于极端气候事件，现在人们越来越有兴趣将其纳入疾病暴发的防范和应对工作中。我们基于对红十字与红新月运动、联合国机构和无国界医生组织自2014年以来现有及新出现做法的回顾，提出了一个针对气候敏感型传染病暴发的触发机制开发分析框架。我们建议，根据数据的可得性，触发机制开发有四种主要方法。第一，在获取其他应急资金的同时，人道主义部门可根据实时监测数据（如疑似病例）扩大预先安排资金的发放。第二，人道主义部门可利用天气预报和季节性气候预测来预测与极端气候事件、异常气候条件或高度适宜气候条件相关的疫情。第三，为延长干预的准备时间，人道主义部门可将观察到的环境和社会经济传播风险因素（如人口流离失所、过度拥挤、病媒存在、天气变化）与实时监测数据结合起来，以改善早期发现或遏制病例的快速增加，同时获取其他应急资金。第四，利用季节性预测进行数据驱动的疫情预测有助于进一步延长准备时间，以便就未来风险做出明智决策。我们给出了示例并讨论了不同方法之间的权衡。随着针对疫情的 anticipatory action 逐渐确立，我们预计未来的应用将整合所有这四种方法。
