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一种用于狐狸种群狂犬病控制的疫苗接种和避孕计划的建模方法。

A modelling approach to vaccination and contraception programmes for rabies control in fox populations.

作者信息

Suppo C, Naulin J M, Langlais M, Artois M

机构信息

IRBI-UMR CNRS 6035, Université de Tours, France.

出版信息

Proc Biol Sci. 2000 Aug 7;267(1452):1575-82. doi: 10.1098/rspb.2000.1180.

Abstract

In a previous study, three of the authors designed a one-dimensional model to simulate the propagation of rabies within a growing fox population; the influence of various parameters on the epidemic model was studied, including oral-vaccination programmes. In this work, a two-dimensional model of a fox population having either an exponential or a logistic growth pattern was considered. Using numerical simulations, the efficiencies of two prophylactic methods (fox contraception and vaccination against rabies) were assessed, used either separately or jointly. It was concluded that far lower rates of administration are necessary to eradicate rabies, and that the undesirable side-effects of each programme disappear, when both are used together.

摘要

在之前的一项研究中,三位作者设计了一个一维模型来模拟狂犬病在不断增长的狐狸种群中的传播;研究了包括口服疫苗接种计划在内的各种参数对该流行病模型的影响。在这项工作中,考虑了具有指数增长或逻辑增长模式的狐狸种群的二维模型。通过数值模拟,评估了两种预防方法(狐狸避孕和狂犬病疫苗接种)单独使用或联合使用时的效果。得出的结论是,根除狂犬病所需的给药率要低得多,并且当两种方法一起使用时,每个计划的不良副作用都会消失。

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