Schinaia G
Dipartimento di Studi Geoeconomici, Statistici, Storici per l'Analisi Regionale, Università di Roma La Sapienza, Rome, Italy.
Eur J Epidemiol. 2000 Jun;16(6):573-9. doi: 10.1023/a:1007663607280.
An original approach to simulation modeling of the HIV/AIDS epidemic is proposed. This approach uses survivor functions estimated from cohort studies conducted with seropositive and AIDS-diagnosed individuals. The model can be considered an alternative to the usual Markov models and accounts for time-dependent HIV progression to AIDS, and AIDS progression to death. By using various forms of survivor functions, it can also easily be extended to accommodate natural history events, as well as long-term survivors and cofactor effects, when appropriate data are available.
本文提出了一种艾滋病（HIV/AIDS）流行模拟建模的创新方法。该方法使用从针对血清阳性和已确诊艾滋病个体进行的队列研究中估计的生存函数。该模型可被视为常规马尔可夫模型的替代方案，它考虑了艾滋病病毒（HIV）随时间进展为艾滋病以及艾滋病进展为死亡的情况。通过使用各种形式的生存函数，当有适当数据时，它还可以很容易地扩展以纳入自然史事件、长期存活者以及协同因素的影响。
