Bailey N T
Stat Med. 1994;13(19-20):1933-43. doi: 10.1002/sim.4780131906.
Mathematical models are an integral part of long-range scientific research and are broadly equivalent to the hypotheses to be tested. Validation consists: (1) in checking whether theoretical expectations are sufficiently close to observed values; and (2) in showing that theoretical constructions that pass the first test can also make verifiable predictions of future events. When modelling is used in operational situations to assist practical decision-making, as in the public health surveillance, prediction and control of infectious diseases, especially HIV/AIDS, it is easy to use the first criterion, but not so simple to implement the second. The paper discusses various methods of improving the validation of a specific classical compartmental model of HIV/AIDS geared to good serial public health data on AIDS incidence. These methods include model fitting to existing data, cross-checking findings with independent research results, general circumstantial support, and the possibility in special situations of the quasi-prediction of present or recent data using models fitted only to sufficiently distant past data.
数学模型是长期科学研究不可或缺的一部分，与待检验的假设大致等同。验证包括：（1）检查理论预期是否与观测值足够接近；（2）证明通过首次检验的理论构建也能对未来事件做出可验证的预测。当在实际操作中使用模型来辅助实际决策时，比如在传染病尤其是艾滋病毒/艾滋病的公共卫生监测、预测和控制中，使用第一个标准很容易，但实施第二个标准并非易事。本文讨论了针对艾滋病发病率良好连续公共卫生数据的特定经典艾滋病毒/艾滋病房室模型，改进其验证的各种方法。这些方法包括将模型拟合到现有数据、将研究结果与独立研究成果进行交叉核对、一般情况的支持，以及在特殊情况下使用仅拟合足够久远过去数据的模型对当前或近期数据进行准预测的可能性。
