Bacchetti P, Jewell N P
Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, University of California, San Francisco 94110.
Biometrics. 1991 Sep;47(3):947-60.
Estimation of the incubation period distribution of human immunodeficiency virus based on prevalent cohorts of subjects, already infected at the time of recruitment, is complicated by the absence of information on the original times of infection. Here, we overcome this difficulty by using a prior distribution for the infection times, based on external data. Our estimate is nonparametric, but uses smoothness assumptions to avoid instability. The method is illustrated on two prevalent cohorts from San Francisco, separately and combined. The estimates produced agree with other published estimates of the incubation period distribution.
基于招募时已感染的受试者流行队列来估计人类免疫缺陷病毒的潜伏期分布，因缺乏感染初始时间的信息而变得复杂。在此，我们通过基于外部数据对感染时间使用先验分布来克服这一困难。我们的估计是非参数的，但使用了平滑假设以避免不稳定性。该方法在来自旧金山的两个流行队列中分别及合并进行了说明。所产生的估计结果与其他已发表的潜伏期分布估计结果一致。
