Nagelkerke N J, Plummer F A, Holton D, Anzala A O, Manji F, Ngugi E N, Moses S
Kenya Medical Research Institute, Nairobi.
AIDS. 1990 Aug;4(8):743-7. doi: 10.1097/00002030-199008000-00005.
The progression of HIV-related disease from infection to death is represented as a staged Markov model. Transitions between stages are considered reversible. The model is fitted to data from a cohort of African prostitutes by means of maximum likelihood. It appears that the progression to symptomatic disease (Centers for Disease Control stage IV) in this population is considerably more rapid than that reported from studies in Western countries.
从感染到死亡的与艾滋病相关疾病的进展情况，被表示为一个分阶段的马尔可夫模型。各阶段之间的转变被认为是可逆的。该模型通过最大似然法拟合了一组非洲妓女的数据。在这一人群中，进展到有症状疾病（美国疾病控制中心IV期）的速度似乎比西方国家研究报告的速度要快得多。
