Earn D J, Levin S A, Rohani P
Department of Mathematics and Statistics, McMaster University, Hamilton, Ontario, Canada, L8S 4K1.
Science. 2000 Nov 17;290(5495):1360-4. doi: 10.1126/science.290.5495.1360.
A principal aim of current conservation policy is to reduce the impact of habitat fragmentation. Conservation corridors may achieve this goal by facilitating movement among isolated patches, but there is a risk that increased connectivity could synchronize local population fluctuations (causing coherent oscillations) and thereby increase the danger of global extinction. We identify general conditions under which populations can or cannot undergo coherent oscillations, and we relate these conditions to local and global extinction probabilities. We suggest a simple method to explore the potential success of conservation corridors and, more generally, any manipulations of dispersal patterns that aim to protect threatened species or control pests.
当前保护政策的一个主要目标是减少栖息地破碎化的影响。保护走廊可以通过促进孤立斑块之间的物种迁移来实现这一目标,但存在这样一种风险,即连通性的增加可能会使当地种群波动同步化(导致相干振荡),从而增加全球物种灭绝的危险。我们确定了种群能够或不能经历相干振荡的一般条件,并将这些条件与局部和全球灭绝概率联系起来。我们提出了一种简单的方法来探究保护走廊以及更普遍地探究旨在保护濒危物种或控制害虫的任何扩散模式操纵的潜在成效。