Kretzschmar M
National Institute of Public Health and the Environment (RIVM), Department of Infectious Diseases Epidemiology, Bilthoven, The Netherlands.
Sex Transm Dis. 2000 Nov;27(10):627-35. doi: 10.1097/00007435-200011000-00011.
Mathematical modeling techniques are being used increasingly to plan public health policy for the prevention of sexually transmitted diseases.
An introduction to various aspects of network structure and sexually transmitted disease prevention using mathematical and simulation models.
A short overview is given about some modeling approaches that are presently available. The effect of partnership duration on the spread of sexually transmitted diseases is discussed in the context of pair-formation models. Network models, which take concurrent partnerships into account, are discussed as a natural extension of pair-formation models.
Results obtained by applying different modeling approaches to analyzing the efficacy of contact tracing in reducing the prevalence of sexually transmitted diseases are summarized.
Partnership duration and network structure should be taken into account when estimating the impact of sexually transmitted disease prevention. Contact tracing can contribute significantly to reducing incidence and prevalence of sexually transmitted diseases. modeling has to be developed further to gain a better understanding of the relationship of network structure and the spread of specific sexually transmitted diseases.
数学建模技术正越来越多地用于规划预防性传播疾病的公共卫生政策。
使用数学和模拟模型介绍网络结构和性传播疾病预防的各个方面。
简要概述了目前可用的一些建模方法。在配对形成模型的背景下讨论了伴侣关系持续时间对性传播疾病传播的影响。将考虑同时存在的伴侣关系的网络模型作为配对形成模型的自然扩展进行了讨论。
总结了通过应用不同建模方法分析接触者追踪在降低性传播疾病患病率方面的效果所获得的结果。
在估计性传播疾病预防的影响时应考虑伴侣关系持续时间和网络结构。接触者追踪可对降低性传播疾病的发病率和患病率做出重大贡献。必须进一步开展建模工作，以更好地理解网络结构与特定性传播疾病传播之间的关系。
