Forest Pathology and Dendrology, Institute of Integrative Biology, ETHZ, Zurich, Switzerland.
AoB Plants. 2014 Apr 29;6(0). doi: 10.1093/aobpla/plu007. Print 2014.
Models of epidemics in complex networks are improving our predictive understanding of infectious disease outbreaks. Nonetheless, applying network theory to plant pathology is still a challenge. This overview summarizes some key developments in network epidemiology that are likely to facilitate its application in the study and management of plant diseases. Recent surveys have provided much-needed datasets on contact patterns and human mobility in social networks, but plant trade networks are still understudied. Human (and plant) mobility levels across the planet are unprecedented-there is thus much potential in the use of network theory by plant health authorities and researchers. Given the directed and hierarchical nature of plant trade networks, there is a need for plant epidemiologists to further develop models based on undirected and homogeneous networks. More realistic plant health scenarios would also be obtained by developing epidemic models in dynamic, rather than static, networks. For plant diseases spread by the horticultural and ornamental trade, there is the challenge of developing spatio-temporal epidemic simulations integrating network data. The use of network theory in plant epidemiology is a promising avenue and could contribute to anticipating and preventing plant health emergencies such as European ash dieback.
复杂网络中的传染病模型正在提高我们对传染病暴发的预测能力。尽管如此，将网络理论应用于植物病理学仍然是一个挑战。这篇综述总结了网络流行病学中一些可能促进其在植物病害研究和管理中应用的关键进展。最近的调查提供了关于社交网络中接触模式和人类流动性的急需数据集，但植物贸易网络仍未得到充分研究。全球范围内人类（和植物）的流动性水平前所未有——因此，植物卫生当局和研究人员使用网络理论具有很大的潜力。鉴于植物贸易网络的有向性和层次性，植物流行病学家需要进一步开发基于无向和均匀网络的模型。通过在动态而不是静态网络中开发流行模型，也可以获得更现实的植物健康情景。对于通过园艺和观赏贸易传播的植物病害，需要开发整合网络数据的时空流行模拟。在植物流行病学中使用网络理论是一个很有前途的途径，可以有助于预测和预防植物健康紧急情况，如欧洲灰枯病。
