Jin Y, de Pedro-Cuesta J, Söderström M, Stawiarz L, Link H
Neuroepidemiology Unit, Karolinska Institute, Huddinge University Hospital, S-141 86, Huddinge, Sweden.
J Neurol Sci. 2000 Dec 1;181(1-2):56-64. doi: 10.1016/s0022-510x(00)00408-1.
To quantify and characterize seasonal variation in monosymptomatic optic neuritis (MON) onsets, multiple sclerosis (MS) onsets and MS exacerbations (MSE), a meta-analysis was performed, using established methods and pooling weighted information obtained from nine reports on MON, six reports on MS onsets and nine reports on MSE, which fulfilled specific criteria for report quality and data homogeneity. The results suggested that MON, MS onsets and MSE in the Northern hemisphere present a similar pattern with highest frequencies in spring and lowest in winter. These differences were highest for MS onsets, 45% with 95% CI 36-55%, and lowest for MSE, 10% with 95% CI 7-13%, statistically significant and robust, insensitive to an alternative seasonal definition, not unduly influenced by any single primary study, and supported by fail-safe N calculations. Random variation, misclassification and publication bias were less likely to account for the reported generalized seasonal patterns.
为了量化和描述单症状性视神经炎（MON）发病、多发性硬化症（MS）发病和MS病情加重（MSE）的季节性变化，我们进行了一项荟萃分析，采用既定方法并汇总从9篇关于MON的报告、6篇关于MS发病的报告和9篇关于MSE的报告中获得的加权信息，这些报告符合报告质量和数据同质性的特定标准。结果表明，北半球的MON、MS发病和MSE呈现出相似的模式，春季发病率最高，冬季最低。这些差异在MS发病中最为显著，为45%，95%置信区间为36 - 55%，在MSE中最低，为10%，95%置信区间为7 - 13%，具有统计学显著性且稳健，对另一种季节性定义不敏感，不受任何单一主要研究的过度影响，并得到失效安全数计算的支持。随机变异、错误分类和发表偏倚不太可能解释所报告的普遍季节性模式。
