Rothman K J
Epidemiology Research Institute, Newton Lower Falls, MA 02462-1450, USA.
Lancet. 2000 Nov 25;356(9244):1837-40. doi: 10.1016/S0140-6736(00)03244-X.
It is too soon for a verdict on the health risks from cellular telephones, especially in view of changing technology. From the Interphone project and some other large studies in progress, better information may emerge. Based on the epidemiological evidence available now, the main public-health concern is clearly motor vehicle collisions, a behavioural effect rather than an effect of radiofrequency exposure as such. Neither the several studies of occupational exposure to radiofrequencies nor the few of cellular telephone users offer any clear evidence of an association with brain tumours or other malignancies. Even if the studies in progress were to find large relative effects for brain cancer, the absolute increase in risk would probably be much smaller than the risk stemming from motor vehicle collisions. Cellular telephones affect the quality of our lives in myriad ways, for good and ill; the health risk is just one part of a picture that is slowly coming into focus.
现在就对手机的健康风险做出定论还为时过早,尤其是考虑到技术的不断变化。从“对讲机”项目和其他一些正在进行的大型研究中,可能会得出更好的信息。根据目前现有的流行病学证据,主要的公共卫生问题显然是机动车碰撞事故,这是一种行为影响,而非射频暴露本身的影响。无论是对射频职业暴露的多项研究,还是对手机用户的少数研究,都没有提供任何与脑肿瘤或其他恶性肿瘤有关联的明确证据。即使正在进行的研究发现患脑癌的相对影响很大,风险的绝对增加可能仍远小于机动车碰撞事故带来的风险。手机以无数方式影响着我们的生活,有好有坏;健康风险只是这幅正慢慢清晰起来的图景的一部分。