Fertility reduction in an MCH/family planning program: a model for projection.

One of the important questions in an integrated maternal and child health/family planning program is the likely effects on fertility rates if given proportions of a stated target population can be reached and provided with family planning services. The question is easy, but the process of obtaining viable estimates of potential fertility decline from this type of program is complicated. First of all, the number of women in the target population must be estimated. Next, it is necessary to make various assumptions and estimates concering the types of contraceptives accepted, the age distribution of acceptors, the sets of continuation rates that go with each age/method specific group of women, and a variety of other factors. This article describes and illustrates a procedure for estimating potential fertility declines with an integrated maternal and child health/family planning program.