Buster M C, van den Brink W
Afd. Epidemiologie, Documentatie en Gezondheidsbevordering, Nieuwe Achtergracht 100, 1018 WT Amsterdam.
Ned Tijdschr Geneeskd. 2001 Jan 27;145(4):164-6.
To estimate the size of a partly hidden population the capture-recapture method can be used. The estimation is based on analysis of the overlap between several samples of the population of interest. The quality of this capture-recapture estimation highly depends on whether the assumptions of the method are or are not met: samples should be independent, the population should be closed, the overlap should be recognised, and samples should contain only individuals originating from the population of interest. Violation of these assumptions may lead to a serious underestimation or (more often) overestimation. The number of problematic heroin addicted people in Amsterdam was estimated on the basis of registered numbers in the easily accessible methadone programme of the municipal health organisation, in the police station methadone treatment programme, and in the hospital registration in the first quarter of 1997: 4130 (95% confidence interval: 3750-4570).
为了估计部分隐藏人群的规模，可以使用捕获再捕获法。该估计基于对感兴趣人群的多个样本之间重叠情况的分析。这种捕获再捕获估计的质量高度依赖于该方法的假设是否得到满足：样本应相互独立，总体应封闭，重叠应可识别，且样本应仅包含来自感兴趣人群的个体。违反这些假设可能导致严重低估或（更常见的）高估。根据市卫生组织易于获取的美沙酮项目、警察局美沙酮治疗项目以及1997年第一季度医院登记中的注册人数，对阿姆斯特丹有问题的海洛因成瘾者数量进行了估计：4130人（95%置信区间：3750 - 4570）。
