Prognosis of chronic glomerulonephritis in adult patients estimated on the basis of the Markov process.

The prognosis of chronic glomerulonephritis based on renal function was assessed using a statistical technique of the Markov process, where the absorbing state was assumed to be an uremic state, 194 adult patients with different types of disease were subjected to study. The 15 min value obtained in the intravenous PSP excretion test was divided into five states; SI (greater than 34%, normal), SII(25-34), SIII(15-24), SIV(5-14) and SV (greater than 5, uremic). The rates of SV with time were calculated with respect to several clinical characteristics. The prognosis of the patients with hypertension, distinct proteinuria and hematuria, or cellular cylindruria appeared to be relatively poor. The estimated number of years from each state to SV were also calculated. The results were similar to those already reported and gave us more exact information about the prognosis.