Radhakrishna S, Frieden T R, Subramani R, Kumaran P P
Tuberculosis Research Centre, Chetput, Chennai, India.
Int J Tuberc Lung Dis. 2001 Feb;5(2):142-57.
To study trends in the prevalence and incidence of tuberculosis in south India.
In 1968-1970, about 100,000 subjects were surveyed for tuberculosis and followed thereafter for 15 years, mainly by repeat survey once every 2.5 years. New entrants were inducted at every repeat survey. Radiographic examination of subjects aged 5 years or more and sputum smear and culture examinations of those with an abnormal shadow were undertaken; tuberculin tests were done initially on all, and at 4, 10 and 15 years in selected samples of those aged 1-9 years.
The prevalence of culture-positive tuberculosis decreased by 1.4% per annum to 694/100,000, while that of smear-positive tuberculosis showed no significant decrease from 457/100,000. The annual incidence of culture-positive tuberculosis decreased by 4.3%/annum to 189/100,000 and that of smear-positive tuberculosis decreased by 2.3%/annum to 113/100,000. Decreases in incidence occurred exclusively in those with abnormal radiographic findings suggestive of tuberculosis at the start of the period. The annual risk of tuberculosis infection (ARTI) was initially 2%, and showed no sign of decline over the period.
The prevalence of tuberculosis and ARTI showed little or no decrease over the 15-year period. A significant decrease in incidence occurred, but exclusively in those with abnormal radiograph suggestive of tuberculosis at the start of the period.
研究印度南部结核病患病率和发病率的趋势。
1968 - 1970年，对约10万名受试者进行了结核病调查，并在此后随访15年，主要是每2.5年进行一次重复调查。每次重复调查时纳入新的受试者。对5岁及以上的受试者进行了X线检查，对有异常阴影的受试者进行了痰涂片和培养检查；最初对所有受试者进行了结核菌素试验，对1 - 9岁的选定样本在4年、10年和15年时进行了结核菌素试验。
培养阳性结核病的患病率以每年1.4%的速度下降至694/10万，而涂片阳性结核病的患病率从457/10万没有显著下降。培养阳性结核病的年发病率以每年4.3%的速度下降至189/10万，涂片阳性结核病的年发病率以每年2.3%的速度下降至113/10万。发病率的下降仅发生在该时期开始时X线检查有提示结核病异常表现的人群中。结核病感染的年风险（ARTI）最初为2%，在该时期内没有下降的迹象。
在15年期间，结核病患病率和ARTI几乎没有下降。发病率有显著下降，但仅发生在该时期开始时X线检查有提示结核病异常表现的人群中。
