Fugelsang J A, Thompson V A
University of Saskatchewan.
Can J Exp Psychol. 2001 Mar;55(1):70-6. doi: 10.1037/h0087354.
Causal discounting occurs when the perceived efficacy of a putative cause is reduced by the presence of a stronger causal candidate. Previous studies of causal discounting have defined the strength of causal candidates in terms of the degree to which the cause and the effect covary (e.g., Baker, Mercier, Vallee-Tourangeau, Frank, & Pan, 1993). In contrast, in the present study, causal strength was defined in terms of both covariation- and belief-based cues. Seventy-two participants made causality judgments for a fictional causal candidate both in isolation and when paired with either a stronger or a weaker cause. The results demonstrated that the degree to which a causal candidate is discounted depends not only on the degree to which an alternative cause covaries with the effect, but also on whether the alternative is a believable or unbelievable candidate. Indeed, it was observed that a highly believable alternative will produce the discounting effect, even if it is a weaker covariate than the original candidate. These findings suggest the need to incorporate both belief-based and covariation-based cues into models of causal attribution.
当一个更强的因果候选因素出现时，假定原因的感知效力降低，因果折扣就会发生。以往关于因果折扣的研究根据原因与结果共变的程度来定义因果候选因素的强度（例如，Baker、Mercier、Vallee-Tourangeau、Frank和Pan，1993）。相比之下，在本研究中，因果强度是根据共变线索和基于信念的线索来定义的。72名参与者对一个虚构的因果候选因素单独进行因果判断，以及当它与一个更强或更弱的原因配对时进行因果判断。结果表明，一个因果候选因素被折扣的程度不仅取决于替代原因与结果共变的程度，还取决于替代原因是可信的还是不可信的候选因素。事实上，研究发现，即使一个高度可信的替代因素比原始候选因素的共变程度弱，它也会产生折扣效应。这些发现表明，需要将基于信念的线索和基于共变的线索都纳入因果归因模型中。
