Keatinge W R, Donaldson G C
Biomedical Sciences, St. Bartholomew's and the Royal London School of Medicine and Dentistry, Queen Mary and Westfield College, Mile End Road, London, E1 4NS, United Kingdom.
Environ Res. 2001 Jul;86(3):209-16. doi: 10.1006/enrs.2001.4255.
We looked for atypical weather patterns that could confound, and explain large inconsistencies in, conventional estimates of mortality due to SO(2), CO, and smoke. Using Greater London data for 1976-1995 in the linear temperature/mortality range 0-15 degrees C we determined weather patterns associated with pollutants (all deseasonalized) by single regressions of daily temperature, wind, rain, humidity, and sunshine at successive days advance and delay. Polluted days were colder (P<0.01 for SO(2), CO, and smoke) and less windy and rainy than usual, and this cold weather was more prolonged than usual with 50% maximum temperature depression 5.9 days (95% interval 4.0-7.7) before high SO(2), compared to 2.0 (1.6-2.3) days before average cold days. We also used multiple regression of mortality at 50+ years of age on all these weather factors and pollutants at 0-, 1-, 2- to 4-, 5- to 13-, and 14- to 24-day delays to allow for the atypical weather patterns. This showed cold weather associated with 2.77 excess deaths per million during 24 days following a 1 degrees C fall for 1 day, but no net excess deaths with SO(2) (mean 28.0 ppb) or CO (1.26 ppm). It suggested (P>0.05) some increase with smoke, perhaps acting as surrogate for PM(10), for which data were too scanty to analyze.
我们寻找了可能混淆并解释因二氧化硫、一氧化碳和烟雾导致的传统死亡率估计中存在的巨大不一致性的非典型天气模式。利用1976 - 1995年大伦敦地区的数据，在0 - 15摄氏度的线性温度/死亡率范围内，我们通过对连续提前和延迟天数的每日温度、风速、降雨量、湿度和日照进行单回归分析，确定了与污染物（所有数据均已去除季节性影响）相关的天气模式。污染日比平常更冷（二氧化硫、一氧化碳和烟雾的P值均<0.01），风速和降雨量也比平常少，而且这种寒冷天气比平常持续时间更长，在高二氧化硫出现前，最高温度下降50%持续5.9天（95%置信区间为4.0 - 7.7天），而平均寒冷日之前为2.0天（1.6 - 2.3天）。我们还对50岁及以上人群的死亡率进行了多元回归分析，将其与所有这些天气因素以及在0天、1天、2至4天、5至13天和14至24天延迟时的污染物进行关联，以考虑非典型天气模式。结果显示，在温度下降1摄氏度持续1天之后的24天内，寒冷天气导致每百万人口中有2.77例额外死亡，但二氧化硫（平均28.0 ppb）或一氧化碳（1.26 ppm）并未导致净额外死亡。结果表明（P>0.05）烟雾可能有一定增加，也许可作为可吸入颗粒物（PM10）的替代指标，但其数据过于稀少无法进行分析。
