Bjørnstad O N, Grenfell B T
Department of Entomology, 501 ASI Building, Penn State University, University Park, PA 16802, USA.
Science. 2001 Jul 27;293(5530):638-43. doi: 10.1126/science.1062226.
Both biotic interactions and abiotic random forcing are crucial influences on population dynamics. This frequently leads to roughly equal importance of deterministic and stochastic forces. The resulting tension between noise and determinism makes ecological dynamics unique, with conceptual and methodological challenges distinctive from those in other dynamical systems. The theory for stochastic, nonlinear ecological dynamics has been developed alongside methods to test models. A range of dynamical components has been considered-density dependence, environmental and demographic stochasticity, and climatic forcing-as well as their often complex interactions. We discuss recent advances in understanding ecological dynamics and testing theory using long-term data and review how dynamical forces interact to generate some central field and laboratory time series.
生物相互作用和非生物随机强迫都是影响种群动态的关键因素。这常常导致确定性因素和随机因素具有大致相当的重要性。噪声与确定性之间由此产生的张力使得生态动力学独具特色，在概念和方法上都面临着与其他动力系统不同的挑战。随机非线性生态动力学理论是与模型检验方法一同发展起来的。人们已经考虑了一系列动力学成分——密度依赖、环境和人口统计学随机性以及气候强迫——以及它们之间通常复杂的相互作用。我们讨论了利用长期数据在理解生态动力学和检验理论方面取得的最新进展，并回顾了各种动力因素如何相互作用以生成一些核心的野外和实验室时间序列。
