Gustafsson B, Carstensen J
Department of Paediatrics, Huddinge University Hospital, Karolinska Institutet, Stockholm, Sweden.
Eur J Epidemiol. 2000;16(12):1111-6. doi: 10.1023/a:1010953713048.
The discussion concerning clusters of childhood leukaemia has mainly been focused on their relation to the time and place of diagnosis. Recently some studies have indicated clustering not only at diagnosis, but also around time and place of birth. Space-time clustering at time of birth could be of special interest if the aetiological agent is of infectious origin and the induction of leukaemia either occurs pre- or perinatally or an infection at that time favours a poor subsequent immune response to the agent.
To identify possible space-time clustering we have used the close-pair method of Knox. One-thousand-twenty recorded cases (0-14 years) of childhood acute lymphatic leukaemia and 293 cases (0-14 years) of malignant non-Hodgkin's lymphoma from Sweden between 1973-1996 were analysed. The records include date of birth and of diagnosis as well as addresses at birth and at diagnosis.
A significant excess of case-pairs (25 observed, 14.9 expected, p = 0.01) was observed close in date and place of birth in the 4-14 year age group with acute lymphatic leukaemia (ALL). However there was no statistically significant clustering found around time of diagnosis. When the cases of leukaemia and the non-Hodgkin's lymphomas were combined no statistically significant clustering was obtained neither at birth nor at diagnosis.
This study strengthens the evidence of space-time clustering around the birth date in children whom later developed ALL. This observation is in support of the hypothesis that pre- or perinatal infections can induce a process leading to ALL.
关于儿童白血病聚集性的讨论主要集中在其与诊断时间和地点的关系上。最近一些研究表明,不仅在诊断时存在聚集现象,在出生时间和地点周围也存在聚集。如果病因是传染性的,且白血病的诱发发生在产前或围产期,或者此时的感染会导致随后对该病原体的免疫反应不佳,那么出生时的时空聚集可能会特别令人关注。
为了确定可能的时空聚集,我们使用了诺克斯的近距离配对法。对1973年至1996年间瑞典记录的1020例(0至14岁)儿童急性淋巴细胞白血病病例和293例(0至14岁)恶性非霍奇金淋巴瘤病例进行了分析。记录包括出生日期、诊断日期以及出生时和诊断时的地址。
在4至14岁急性淋巴细胞白血病(ALL)年龄组中,观察到出生日期和地点相近的病例对显著过多(观察到25对,预期14.9对,p = 0.01)。然而,在诊断时间周围未发现统计学上显著的聚集。当白血病病例和非霍奇金淋巴瘤病例合并时,在出生时和诊断时均未获得统计学上显著的聚集。
本研究强化了后来患ALL的儿童在出生日期周围存在时空聚集的证据。这一观察结果支持产前或围产期感染可引发导致ALL的过程这一假说。