Institute of Social and Preventive Medicine (ISPM), University of Bern, Mittelstrasse 43, 3012, Bern, Switzerland.
Eur J Epidemiol. 2019 Jan;34(1):9-21. doi: 10.1007/s10654-018-0456-y. Epub 2018 Nov 16.
The aetiology of childhood cancers remains largely unknown. Space-time clustering of cases might imply an aetiological role of infections. We aimed to review the evidence of space-time clustering of specific childhood cancers. We searched Medline and Embase for population-based studies that covered a pre-defined study area, included cases under 20 years of age and were published before July 2016. We extracted all space-time clustering tests and calculated the proportion of positive tests per diagnostic group. In a pooled analysis, we performed a Knox test of the number of pairs of cases close to each other in time and space pooled across studies. 70 studies met our eligibility criteria, 32 of which reported Knox tests. For leukaemia, the proportion of positive tests was higher than expected by chance at both time of diagnosis (26%) and birth (11%). The pooled analysis showed strong evidence of clustering at diagnosis for children aged 0-5 years for a spatial and temporal lag of 5 km and 6 months, respectively (p < 0.001). The evidence was mixed for lymphoma and tumours of the central nervous system. The current study suggests that leukaemia cases cluster in space-time due to an aetiological factor affecting children under 5 years of age. The observed pattern of clustering of young children close to time of diagnosis is compatible with Greaves' delayed-infections-hypothesis.
儿童癌症的病因在很大程度上仍是未知的。病例的时空聚集可能意味着感染的病因作用。我们旨在回顾特定儿童癌症时空聚集的证据。我们在 Medline 和 Embase 上搜索了基于人群的研究,这些研究涵盖了预先确定的研究区域,包括 20 岁以下的病例,并在 2016 年 7 月之前发表。我们提取了所有时空聚类检验,并计算了每个诊断组阳性检验的比例。在汇总分析中,我们对来自不同研究的时间和空间上接近的病例对的数量进行了 Knox 检验。有 70 项研究符合我们的纳入标准,其中 32 项报告了 Knox 检验。对于白血病,在诊断时(26%)和出生时(11%),阳性检验的比例均高于预期的偶然概率。汇总分析显示,对于 0-5 岁的儿童,诊断时存在强烈的时空聚类证据,分别存在 5 公里和 6 个月的空间和时间滞后(p<0.001)。对于淋巴瘤和中枢神经系统肿瘤,证据是混杂的。目前的研究表明,白血病病例在时空上聚集是由于一个病因因素影响了 5 岁以下的儿童。观察到的接近诊断时间的幼儿聚类模式与 Greaves 的延迟感染假说一致。