Taylor B J, Graham J W, Cumsille P, Hansen W B
The Methodology Center, The Pennsylvania State University, Department of Biobehavioral Health, University Park 16802, USA.
Prev Sci. 2000 Dec;1(4):183-97. doi: 10.1023/a:1026547128209.
The efficacy of prevention programs is typically determined through analysis of covariance. To date, a growth curve modeling approach is not used extensively in program evaluation. However, for longitudinal data there are several advantages to using this approach as compared to methods comparing means at two time points in a piecemeal fashion. In this study, latent growth curve models were used to evaluate the effect of a program on the average level of drug use, rate of change (growth) of drug use, and acceleration or deceleration in the rate of change of drug use. The study relied on data from the Adolescent Alcohol Prevention Trial, a randomized longitudinal drug use prevention program. The program consists of drug use information, resistance skills training, and normative education components. Data regarding cigarette and alcohol use were collected over a 5-year period, grade 7 to grade 11. Students receiving the normative education program had significantly lower average levels of reported cigarette and alcohol use, lower rates of growth for reported cigarette and alcohol use, and less deceleration of reported levels of cigarette and alcohol use as compared with the control group. Growth curve analysis is a powerful and effective tool with which to model change and program efficacy.
预防项目的效果通常通过协方差分析来确定。迄今为止，生长曲线建模方法在项目评估中并未得到广泛应用。然而，对于纵向数据而言，与逐个比较两个时间点均值的方法相比，使用这种方法具有若干优势。在本研究中，潜在生长曲线模型被用于评估一个项目对药物使用平均水平、药物使用变化率（增长）以及药物使用变化率的加速或减速的影响。该研究依赖于青少年酒精预防试验的数据，这是一个随机纵向药物使用预防项目。该项目包括药物使用信息、抵抗技能培训和规范教育部分。关于香烟和酒精使用的数据在7年级到11年级的5年期间收集。与对照组相比，接受规范教育项目的学生报告的香烟和酒精使用平均水平显著更低，报告的香烟和酒精使用增长率更低，并且报告的香烟和酒精使用水平的减速更小。生长曲线分析是一种用于模拟变化和项目效果的强大而有效的工具。
