Chapman G B
Psychology Department, Rutgers University, Piscataway, NJ 08854-8020, USA.
Acta Psychol (Amst). 2001 Sep;108(2):95-116. doi: 10.1016/s0001-6918(01)00030-0.
Many important decisions concern outcomes delayed by decades or centuries. Whereas some economists have argued that inter-generational discount rates should be lower than intra-generational rates, three experiments found that inter- and intra-generational discount rates were quite similar. Experiment 1 found that discount rates for long delays (30-900 years) were lower than those for shorter delays (1-30 years) but that, holding delay constant, discount rates for outcomes occurring to future generations were similar to those for outcomes occurring to the present generation. Experiment 2 compared inter-generational discount rates for three different types of outcomes and found similar discount rates for saving lives, improving health, and financial benefits. Experiment 3 found similar inter-generational discounting of life-saving programs that benefit people close to or distant from the decision maker. These studies indicate that the discount rate applied to outcomes occurring to future generations depends on the length of the time delay but not on other factors.
许多重要决策涉及几十年甚至几个世纪后才会出现的结果。尽管一些经济学家认为代际贴现率应低于代内贴现率，但三项实验发现，代际贴现率和代内贴现率非常相似。实验1发现，长期延迟（30 - 900年）的贴现率低于短期延迟（1 - 30年）的贴现率，但在延迟时间不变的情况下，未来几代人出现的结果的贴现率与当代人出现的结果的贴现率相似。实验2比较了三种不同类型结果的代际贴现率，发现拯救生命、改善健康和经济收益的贴现率相似。实验3发现，对决策者身边或远方的人有益的救生项目的代际贴现率相似。这些研究表明，应用于未来几代人出现的结果的贴现率取决于时间延迟的长度，而不取决于其他因素。
