Wulff F, Bonsdorff E, Gren I M, Johansson S, Stigebrandt A
Department of Systems Ecology, University of Stockholm, SE-106 91 Stockholm, Sweden.
Ambio. 2001 Aug;30(4-5):254-9.
The Baltic Sea is one of the world's seas that is most severely affected by human activities. Although there is an international agreement that nutrient input to the Baltic should be reduced, the measures taken so far have not resulted in major reductions in nutrient inputs nor in environmental improvements. The reasons for this are partly due to lack of knowledge on large-scale relationships and couplings between physics, biogeochemistry and ecological properties. But there is also a lack of overall drainage basin-wide analyses on cost-effective measures. There is a danger in making the wrong decisions, e.g. implement reduction schemes that are at worst ineffective or at best, far from cost effective. Researchers from many disciplines are faced with a common challenge: To develop a decision-support system, which can be used as the scientific base for cost-effective measures for the entire Baltic Sea. Such an effort is now being made within the research program MARE (http://www.mare.su.se).
波罗的海是世界上受人类活动影响最严重的海域之一。尽管有一项国际协议要求减少流入波罗的海的养分，但迄今为止采取的措施并未使养分输入大幅减少，也未带来环境改善。其部分原因在于缺乏对物理、生物地球化学和生态特性之间大规模关系及耦合的了解。而且还缺乏对具有成本效益措施的全流域整体分析。做出错误决策存在风险，例如实施的减排方案，往坏了说是无效的，往好里说也远远谈不上具有成本效益。来自许多学科的研究人员面临着一个共同的挑战：开发一个决策支持系统，该系统可作为整个波罗的海具有成本效益措施的科学依据。目前正在“海洋研究计划”（http://www.mare.su.se）内开展这样的工作。
