Mueller C B, Jeffries W
Ann Surg. 1975 Sep;182(3):334-41. doi: 10.1097/00000658-197509000-00016.
Mortality forces in women with cancer of the breast were measured by calculating the rate of dying and determining the cause of death in women who develop breast cancer. In the Syracuse-Upstate Medical Center Cancer Registry, 1,513 patients were followed for 15 years. The death curve of this group assumed a major slope characteristic of a single exponential curve, with a half life of 5.9 years. The cause of death was examined in a randomly selected group of patients from the Ontario Cancer Foundation, Hamilton, Ontario, and a group from the Syracuse Registry dying after 10 years. In these 136 patients, 130 died of breast cancer. From the National Cancer Institute Cooperative Studies of 3,225 women undergoing treatment for primary breast cancer, 914 died during the study---705 of cancer of the breast and 209 of competing risks. These data suggest that 80-85% of all women who die after developing cancer of the breast die of their breast cancer. Modification of the time of dying (rate of dying) or cause of death should be used as objectives of management rather than 5-year survival figures.
通过计算乳腺癌女性的死亡率并确定患乳腺癌女性的死因来衡量其死亡风险。在锡拉丘兹-上州医学中心癌症登记处，对1513名患者进行了15年的随访。该组的死亡曲线呈现出单一指数曲线的主要斜率特征，半衰期为5.9年。在安大略省汉密尔顿市安大略癌症基金会随机抽取的一组患者以及锡拉丘兹登记处10年后死亡的一组患者中对死因进行了检查。在这136名患者中，130人死于乳腺癌。在美国国立癌症研究所对3225名接受原发性乳腺癌治疗的女性进行的合作研究中，914人在研究期间死亡——705人死于乳腺癌，209人死于其他竞争性风险。这些数据表明，所有患乳腺癌后死亡的女性中，80%至85%死于乳腺癌。改变死亡时间（死亡率）或死因应作为治疗目标，而不是5年生存率。
