Hibberd A D, Horwood L J, Wells J E
Br Med J (Clin Res Ed). 1983 Jun 4;286(6380):1777-9. doi: 10.1136/bmj.286.6380.1777.
The long term prognosis of women with breast cancer was studied by analysing retrospectively the 30 year survival of 2019 women with histologically proved breast cancer recorded at the National Cancer Registry in New Zealand between 1950 and 1954. Excess mortality rates for successive five year survival cohorts were calculated from the survival data. From the total cohort the excess mortality rate fell rapidly during the first 10 years and then became low after 20 years. There were no significant differences in excess mortality for the age cohorts. Most of the excess mortality for 20 years was due to deaths from breast cancer. In this study the prognosis for women with breast cancer approached normal after 20 years and the improvement in prognosis resulted from decreasing death rates from breast cancer.
通过回顾性分析1950年至1954年间在新西兰国家癌症登记处记录的2019例经组织学证实的乳腺癌女性患者的30年生存率，对乳腺癌女性患者的长期预后进行了研究。根据生存数据计算了连续五年生存队列的超额死亡率。在整个队列中，超额死亡率在前10年迅速下降，然后在20年后变得很低。各年龄队列的超额死亡率没有显著差异。20年的大部分超额死亡率是由乳腺癌死亡所致。在这项研究中，乳腺癌女性患者的预后在20年后接近正常，预后的改善源于乳腺癌死亡率的下降。
