Ghil Michael, Robertson Andrew W
Department of Atmospheric Sciences and Institute of Geophysics and Planetary Physics, University of California, Los Angeles, CA 90095-1567, USA.
Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A. 2002 Feb 19;99 Suppl 1(Suppl 1):2493-500. doi: 10.1073/pnas.012580899.
Thirty years ago, E. N. Lorenz provided some approximate limits to atmospheric predictability. The details---in space and time---of atmospheric flow fields are lost after about 10 days. Certain gross flow features recur, however, after times of the order of 10--50 days, giving hope for their prediction. Over the last two decades, numerous attempts have been made to predict these recurrent features. The attempts have involved, on the one hand, systematic improvements in numerical weather prediction by increasing the spatial resolution and physical faithfulness in the detailed models used for this prediction. On the other hand, theoretical attempts motivated by the same goal have involved the study of the large-scale atmospheric motions' phase space and the inhomogeneities therein. These "coarse-graining" studies have addressed observed as well as simulated atmospheric data sets. Two distinct approaches have been used in these studies: the episodic or intermittent and the oscillatory or periodic. The intermittency approach describes multiple-flow (or weather) regimes, their persistence and recurrence, and the Markov chain of transitions among them. The periodicity approach studies intraseasonal oscillations, with periods of 15--70 days, and their predictability. We review these two approaches, "particles" vs. "waves," in the quantum physics analogy alluded to in the title of this article, discuss their complementarity, and outline unsolved problems.
30年前，E. N. 洛伦兹给出了大气可预测性的一些近似界限。大气流场在空间和时间上的细节在大约10天后就会消失。然而，某些总体流动特征会在10至50天左右的时间后再次出现，这为它们的预测带来了希望。在过去的二十年里，人们进行了大量尝试来预测这些反复出现的特征。这些尝试一方面包括通过提高用于此预测的详细模型的空间分辨率和物理逼真度来系统地改进数值天气预报。另一方面，出于相同目标的理论尝试涉及对大规模大气运动的相空间及其内部不均匀性的研究。这些“粗粒化”研究涉及观测到的以及模拟的大气数据集。在这些研究中使用了两种不同的方法：偶发性或间歇性方法以及振荡性或周期性方法。间歇性方法描述了多种流动（或天气）状态、它们的持续性和反复出现，以及它们之间的马尔可夫链转换。周期性方法研究周期为15至70天的季节内振荡及其可预测性。我们将以本文标题中所暗示的量子物理类比来回顾这两种方法，即“粒子”与“波”，讨论它们的互补性，并概述未解决的问题。
