Hunault Claudine C, Eijkemans Marinus J C, Pieters Math H E C, te Velde Egbert R, Habbema J Dik F, Fauser Bart C J M, Macklon Nicholas S
Division of Reproductive Medicine, Department of Obstetrics and Gynecology, Erasmus University Medical Center, The, Rotterdam, Netherlands.
Fertil Steril. 2002 Apr;77(4):725-32. doi: 10.1016/s0015-0282(01)03243-5.
Construction of a prediction model to enable the selection of patients for elective single ET.
Retrospective cohort study.
Fertility center in a tertiary referral university hospital.
PATIENT(S): Six hundred forty-two women undergoing their first IVF treatment cycle in which no more than two embryos were transferred.
INTERVENTION(S): Database analysis.
MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE(S): Ongoing pregnancy and multiple pregnancy.
RESULT(S): In multivariate analysis, the best predictors for ongoing pregnancy were female age, the number of retrieved oocytes, the developmental stage score and the morphology score of the two best embryos available for transfer, and the day of transfer. Younger age and high quality of transferred embryos were the best predictors for increased risk of multiple pregnancy. The resulting model enables the calculation of probabilities of pregnancy and twin pregnancy. Depending on embryo quality, there is a threshold age under which the chance of singleton pregnancy is higher if one embryo is transferred compared with two embryos.
CONCLUSION(S): Application of this model may enable a reduction in the chance of twin pregnancy without compromising singleton pregnancy rates in a subgroup of patients undergoing IVF.
构建一个预测模型，以便为选择性单胚胎移植选择患者。
回顾性队列研究。
一所三级转诊大学医院的生育中心。
642名接受首次体外受精治疗周期且移植胚胎不超过两个的女性。
数据库分析。
持续妊娠和多胎妊娠。
在多变量分析中，持续妊娠的最佳预测因素为女性年龄、获卵数、可用于移植的两个最佳胚胎的发育阶段评分和形态学评分以及移植日。年龄较小和移植胚胎质量高是多胎妊娠风险增加的最佳预测因素。所得模型能够计算妊娠和双胎妊娠的概率。根据胚胎质量，存在一个阈值年龄，低于该年龄时，与移植两个胚胎相比，移植一个胚胎时单胎妊娠的几率更高。
应用该模型可能会降低接受体外受精患者亚组中的双胎妊娠几率，同时不影响单胎妊娠率。
