Snook Brent, Canter David, Bennell Craig
Department of Psychology, The University of Liverpool, Eleanor Rathbone Building, Liverpool, L69 7ZA, UK.
Behav Sci Law. 2002;20(1-2):109-18. doi: 10.1002/bsl.474.
The accuracy with which human judges, before and after 'training', could predict the likely home location of serial offenders was compared with predictions produced by a geographic profiling system known as Dragnet. All predictions were derived from ten spatial displays, one for each of ten different U.S. serial murderers, indicating five crime locations. In all conditions participants were asked to place an 'X' on each spatial display corresponding to where they thought the offender lived. In the control condition, a comparison was made between the accuracy of these predictions for 21 participants on two separate occasions a few minutes apart. In the experimental condition, between their first and second predictions the 21 participants were given two heuristics to follow--distance-decay and circle hypothesis. Results showed that participants with no previous knowledge of geographic profiling were able to use the two heuristics to improve the accuracy of their predictions. The overall accuracy of the second set of predictions for the experimental group was also not significantly different from the accuracy of predictions generated by Dragnet.
将“训练”前后人类法官预测连环犯罪者可能的家庭住址的准确性，与一种名为Dragnet的地理画像系统所做出的预测进行了比较。所有预测均来自十个空间展示图，每个展示图对应十名不同的美国连环杀手之一，显示了五个犯罪地点。在所有情况下，都要求参与者在每个空间展示图上对应他们认为犯罪者居住的地方画一个“X”。在控制条件下，对21名参与者在相隔几分钟的两个不同时间做出的这些预测的准确性进行了比较。在实验条件下，21名参与者在第一次和第二次预测之间被给予了两种启发式方法——距离衰减和圆圈假设。结果表明，以前没有地理画像知识的参与者能够使用这两种启发式方法提高他们预测的准确性。实验组第二组预测的总体准确性与Dragnet生成的预测准确性也没有显著差异。
