Smith K R, Brown J, Jones J A, Mansfield P, Smith J G, Haywood S M, Walters C B
National Radiological Protection Board, Didcot, Oxon, UK.
Radiat Prot Dosimetry. 2002;98(3):313-28. doi: 10.1093/oxfordjournals.rpd.a006723.
Models are routinely used to calculate doses following routine releases and potential accidental releases of radionuclides. These models contain a number of parameters. Values for many of these are not accurately known. The primary aim of this study was to determine the level of uncertainty on predicted concentrations of radionuclides in foods, and doses to individuals consuming those foods, arising from uncertainties on the model input parameter values. A secondary objective was to identify those input parameters whose uncertainty makes a major contribution to the overall uncertainty on the predicted endpoints. The methodology adopted and results obtained are presented for the following radionuclides: 90Sr, 131I, 137Cs and 239Pu. The estimated uncertainty ratios (the ratio of the 95th to the 5th percentile) are frequently very large, often two to three orders of magnitude. The results of this study may be used to identify areas where further research could improve assessment capabilities.
模型通常用于计算放射性核素常规释放以及潜在意外释放后的剂量。这些模型包含许多参数。其中许多参数的值并不确切知晓。本研究的主要目的是确定由于模型输入参数值的不确定性而导致的食品中放射性核素预测浓度以及食用这些食品的个体所受剂量的不确定程度。次要目标是识别那些不确定性对预测终点的总体不确定性有重大贡献的输入参数。针对以下放射性核素给出了所采用的方法和获得的结果：90锶、131碘、137铯和239钚。估计的不确定度比率（第95百分位数与第5百分位数之比）通常非常大，常常相差两到三个数量级。本研究结果可用于确定哪些领域的进一步研究能够提高评估能力。
