Kravdal Øystein
Department of Economics, University of Oslo, P.O. Box 1095, Blindern, N-0317 Oslo, Norway.
Demography. 2002 May;39(2):233-50. doi: 10.1353/dem.2002.0017.
Using data from Demographic and Health Surveys for 22 countries in Sub-Saharan Africa, I show that the average educational level in a village or a community of a similar size has a significant depressing effect on a woman's birth rates, net of urbanization and her own education. According to simulations, average fertility for these countries would be 1.00 lower if education were expanded from the current level in the region to the relatively high level in Kenya. The exclusion of aggregate education from the model leaves a response of only 0.52. A considerable aggregate contribution is estimated even when several potential determinants of education are included. This finding illustrates the need to consider aggregate education in future assessments of the total impact of education.
利用撒哈拉以南非洲22个国家的人口与健康调查数据，我发现，在排除城市化和女性自身教育因素后，一个村庄或类似规模社区的平均教育水平对女性生育率有显著的抑制作用。根据模拟结果，如果该地区的教育水平从当前水平提高到肯尼亚的较高水平，这些国家的平均生育率将降低1.00。在模型中排除总体教育因素后，生育率的降幅仅为0.52。即使纳入了几个教育的潜在决定因素，总体教育的贡献仍相当可观。这一发现表明，在未来评估教育的总体影响时，有必要考虑总体教育因素。
