Upchurch Dawn M, Lillard Lee A, Panis Constantijn W A
UCLA School of Public Health, 650 Charles E. Young Drive South, Los Angeles, CA 90095-1772, USA.
Demography. 2002 May;39(2):311-29. doi: 10.1353/dem.2002.0020.
We examined the determinants of nonmarital fertility, focusing on the effects of other life-course events: education, marriage, marital dissolution, and marital fertility. Since these determinants are potentially endogenous, we modeled the processes that generate them jointly with nonmarital fertility and accounted for the sequencing of events and the unobserved correlations across processes. The results showed that the risk of nonmarital conception increases immediately after leaving school and that the educational effects are less pronounced for black women than for other women. The risk is lower for previously married women than for never-married women, even controlling for age, but this reduction is significant only for black women. The more children a woman already has, the lower her risk of nonmarital childbearing, particularly if the earlier children were born during a previous marriage. Ignoring endogeneity issues seriously biases the estimates of several substantively important effects.
我们研究了非婚生育的决定因素,重点关注其他人生历程事件的影响:教育、婚姻、婚姻解体和婚内生育。由于这些决定因素可能是内生的,我们对与非婚生育共同产生这些因素的过程进行了建模,并考虑了事件的先后顺序以及各过程中未观察到的相关性。结果表明,离校后非婚受孕的风险立即增加,而且教育对黑人女性的影响不如对其他女性那么明显。即使控制了年龄,曾婚女性的风险也低于未婚女性,但这种降低仅对黑人女性显著。女性已有的孩子越多,其非婚生育的风险就越低,特别是如果较早的孩子是在前一次婚姻期间出生的。忽略内生性问题会严重歪曲几个具有实质重要性的影响的估计值。