Department of Sociology, Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, MD 21218
Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A. 2021 Sep 14;118(37). doi: 10.1073/pnas.2109016118.
Levels of nonmarital first childbearing are assessed using recent administrations of the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth, 1997 Cohort; the National Longitudinal Study of Adolescent to Adult Health; and the National Survey of Family Growth. Results confirm that the higher a woman's educational attainment, the less likely she is to be unmarried at the time of her first birth. A comparison over time shows increases in nonmarital first childbearing at every educational level, with the largest percentage increase occurring among women with college degrees at the BA or BS level or higher. This article projects that 18 to 27% of college-educated women now in their thirties who have a first birth will be unmarried at the time. In addition, among all women who are unmarried at first birth, women with college degrees are more likely to be married at the time of their second birth, and, in a majority of cases, the other parent of the two children was the same person. A growing proportion of well-educated women, and their partners, may therefore be pursuing a family formation strategy that proceeds directly to a first birth, and then proceeds, at a later point, to marriage, followed by a second birth. Possible reasons for the increase in nonmarital first births among the college-educated include the stagnation of the college wage premium; the rise in student debt; decreasing selectivity; and the growing acceptability of childbearing within cohabiting unions, which have become a common setting for nonmarital childbearing, and among single parents.
使用最近的国家青年纵向调查 1997 年队列、国家青少年健康纵向研究和国家家庭增长调查评估了非婚首胎生育水平。研究结果证实,女性受教育程度越高,首次生育时未婚的可能性就越小。随着时间的推移进行比较,发现每个教育水平的非婚首胎生育都有所增加,其中学士学位或更高学位的大学学历女性的百分比增幅最大。本文预测,现在 30 多岁的受过大学教育的女性中,有 18%至 27%的人在首次生育时将未婚。此外,在所有首次生育时未婚的女性中,有大学学历的女性在第二次生育时更有可能已婚,而且在大多数情况下,两个孩子的另一位家长是同一个人。因此,越来越多受过良好教育的女性及其伴侣可能正在追求一种家庭形成策略,即直接生育第一个孩子,然后在稍后的时间结婚,接着生育第二个孩子。在受教育程度较高的人群中,非婚首胎生育增加的可能原因包括:大学薪酬溢价停滞不前;学生债务增加;选择性下降;以及在同居关系中生育的可接受性不断提高,同居关系已经成为非婚生育的常见环境,而且在单身父母中也是如此。