Brien M J, Lillard L A, Waite L J
Department of Economics, University of Virginia, Charlottesville 22903, USA.
Demography. 1999 Nov;36(4):535-51.
Data from the National Longitudinal Study of the High School Class of 1972 are used to estimate a series of models of entry into marriage, entry into cohabitation, and nonmarital pregnancy. Our models account explicitly for the endogeneity of one outcome as a predictor of another by taking into account both heterogeneity across individuals due to unmeasured factors that may affect all these outcomes and the correlation in the unmeasured factors across processes. We find that these heterogeneity components are strongly and positively related across the outcomes. Women who are more likely to cohabit, marry, or become pregnant while unmarried are also more likely to do each of the others. Although black and white women differ in the likelihood of these behaviors, the interrelations of the behaviors are quite similar across groups.
来自“1972届高中毕业生全国纵向研究”的数据被用于估计一系列关于步入婚姻、开始同居和非婚怀孕的模型。我们的模型通过考虑因可能影响所有这些结果的不可测因素导致的个体间异质性以及各过程中不可测因素的相关性,明确地将一个结果的内生性作为另一个结果的预测因素。我们发现,这些异质性成分在所有结果之间呈强烈正相关。更有可能同居、结婚或未婚怀孕的女性,也更有可能出现其他情况。尽管黑人和白人女性在这些行为的可能性上存在差异,但这些行为之间的相互关系在不同群体中非常相似。