Impicciatore Roberto, Gabrielli Giuseppe, Paterno Anna
Department of Statistical Sciences "P. Fortunati", University of Bologna, Via delle Belle Arti, 41, 40126 Bologna, Italy.
Department of Political Sciences, University of Naples Federico II, Via Leopoldo Rodinò 22, 80133 Naples, Italy.
Eur J Popul. 2020 Jan 13;36(4):799-825. doi: 10.1007/s10680-019-09553-w. eCollection 2020 Sep.
Previous research has analyzed the effect of migration on fertility, and a number of hypotheses have been developed: namely adaptation, socialization, selection, disruption and interrelation of events. Comparison among stayers in the origin countries, migrants and non-migrants in the destination country is essential to gain better understanding of the effects of migration on fertility. However, this joint comparison has been rarely conducted. We sought to fill this gap and analyze migrants' fertility in Italy. By merging different data sources for the first time, we were able to compare our target group of migrant women, respectively, born in Albania, Morocco and Ukraine with both Italian non-migrants and stayers in the country of origin. Considering the first three orders of births, multi-process hazard models were estimated in order to provide a more exhaustive and diversified scenario and to test the existing hypotheses. The results show that there is no single model of fertility for migrants in Italy. In addition, some hypotheses provide a better explanation of the fertility behavior than others do. Among women from Morocco, the socialization hypothesis tends to prevail, whereas Albanians' fertility is mostly explained in terms of adaptation. Disruption emerged as the main mechanism able to explain the fertility of migrants from Ukraine, and a clear interrelation between fertility and migration is apparent for women from Albania and Morocco, but only for the first birth.
以往的研究分析了移民对生育率的影响，并提出了一些假设：即适应、社会化、选择、事件干扰和相互关系。对原籍国的留守者、目的地国的移民和非移民进行比较，对于更好地理解移民对生育率的影响至关重要。然而，这种联合比较很少进行。我们试图填补这一空白，并分析意大利移民的生育率。通过首次合并不同的数据源，我们能够将分别出生在阿尔巴尼亚、摩洛哥和乌克兰的移民女性目标群体与意大利非移民以及原籍国的留守者进行比较。考虑到前三个生育顺序，我们估计了多过程风险模型，以便提供更详尽和多样化的情况，并检验现有的假设。结果表明，意大利移民不存在单一的生育模式。此外，一些假设比其他假设能更好地解释生育行为。在摩洛哥女性中，社会化假设往往占主导地位，而阿尔巴尼亚人的生育率大多从适应的角度来解释。干扰是能够解释乌克兰移民生育率的主要机制，阿尔巴尼亚和摩洛哥女性的生育率与移民之间存在明显的相互关系，但仅适用于第一胎。
