Waggoner P E, Ausubel J H
The Connecticut Agricultural Experiment Station, New Haven, CT 06504-1106, USA.
Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A. 2002 Jun 11;99(12):7860-5. doi: 10.1073/pnas.122235999.
Learning actors' leverage for change along the journey to sustainability requires quantifying the component forces of environmental impact and integrating them. Population, income, consumers' behavior, and producers' efficiency jointly force impact. Here, we renovate the "IPAT Identity" to identify actors with the forces. Forcing impact I are P for population, A for income as gross domestic product (GDP) per capita, C for intensity of use as a good per GDP, and T for efficiency ratios as impact per good. In the "ImPACT Identity," parents modify P, workers modify A, consumers modify C, and producers modify T. Because annual percentage changes in component forces add to a change in national impact, actors' leverage is reflected transparently in consistent units of annual percentage changes that can be compared from force to force. Examples from energy and food, farming and manufacturing, and steel and water show that declining C, called dematerialization, can temper the sustainability challenge of growth (P x A), and that innovation or efficient technology that lowers T can counter rising consumption (P x A x C). Income elasticity can accommodate connections between income and other forces. From rates of change of forces, the identity can forecast impacts. Alternatively, by identifying the necessary change in forces to cause a projected impact, ImPACT can assay the likelihood and practicability of environmental targets and timetables. An annual 2-3% progress in consumption and technology over many decades and sectors provides a benchmark for sustainability.
了解行为主体在可持续发展之路上推动变革的影响力,需要对环境影响的组成因素进行量化并加以整合。人口、收入、消费者行为和生产者效率共同作用产生影响。在此,我们对“IPAT恒等式”进行改进,以确定具有这些影响力的行为主体。产生影响I的因素包括:P代表人口,A代表作为人均国内生产总值(GDP)的收入,C代表作为每单位GDP某种商品的使用强度,T代表作为每单位商品影响的效率比。在“ImPACT恒等式”中,父母影响P,工人影响A,消费者影响C,生产者影响T。由于各组成因素的年度百分比变化累加起来构成国家影响的变化,行为主体的影响力以一致的年度百分比变化单位清晰地体现出来,从而可以相互比较。能源与食品、农业与制造业以及钢铁与水方面的例子表明,C的下降(即去物质化)能够缓和增长(P×A)带来的可持续性挑战,而降低T的创新或高效技术能够抵消消费的增长(P×A×C)。收入弹性可以体现收入与其他因素之间的联系。根据各因素的变化率,该恒等式能够预测影响。或者,通过确定为实现预期影响各因素所需的变化,ImPACT可以分析环境目标和时间表的可能性及可行性。几十年来在众多领域实现消费和技术每年2%至3%的进步,为可持续发展提供了一个基准。