Department of Economics, DePaul University; and Legal Econometrics, Glenview, IL, USA.
Demography. 2010 Aug;47(3):609-28. doi: 10.1353/dem.0.0111.
Retirement-related concepts are treated as random variables within Markov process models that capture multiple labor force entries and exits. The expected number of years spent outside of the labor force, expected years in retirement, and expected age at retirement are computed-all of which are of immense policy interest but have been heretofore reported with less precisely measured proxies. Expected age at retirement varies directly with a person s age; but even younger people can expect to retire at ages substantially older than those commonly associated with retirement, such as age 60, 62, or 65. Between 1970 and 2003, men allocated most of their increase in life expectancy to increased time in retirement, but women allocated most of their increased life expectancy to labor force activity. Although people can exit and reenter the labor force at older ages, most 65-year-old men who are active in the labor force will not reenter after they eventually exit. At age 65, the probability that those who are inactive will reenter the labor force at some future time is .38for men and .27 for women. Life expectancy at exact ages is decomposed into the sum of the expected time spent active and inactive in the labor force, and also as the sum of the expected time to labor force separation and time in retirement.
退休相关的概念被视为马尔可夫过程模型中的随机变量，这些模型捕捉了多次劳动力的进入和退出。计算了非劳动力参与的预期年限、预期退休年限和预期退休年龄——所有这些都具有巨大的政策意义，但迄今为止，这些指标的测量精度较低，相关报道也较少。预期退休年龄与一个人的年龄直接相关；但即使是年轻人，也可以预期在比通常与退休相关的年龄（如 60、62 或 65 岁）更早的年龄退休。在 1970 年至 2003 年间，男性将预期寿命的增加主要用于增加退休时间，但女性则将大部分增加的预期寿命用于劳动力活动。尽管人们可以在老年时退出和重新进入劳动力市场，但大多数 65 岁仍活跃在劳动力市场的男性在最终退出后不会重新进入。在 65 岁时，不活跃的人在未来某个时候重新进入劳动力市场的概率，男性为.38，女性为.27。特定年龄的预期寿命被分解为劳动力市场活跃和不活跃的预期时间的总和，以及劳动力市场分离和退休时间的预期时间的总和。
