Skre Oddvar, Baxter Robert, Crawford Robert M M, Callaghan Terry V, Fedorkov Alexey
Norwegian Forest Research Institute, Fanaflaten 4, N-5244 Fana, Norway.
Ambio. 2002 Aug;Spec No 12:37-46.
The intuitive and logical answer to the question of how the tundra-taiga interface will react to global warming is that it should move north and this is mirrored by many models of potential treeline migration. Northward movement may be the eventual outcome if climatic warming persists over centuries or millennia. However, closer examination of the tundra-taiga interface across its circumpolar extent reveals a more complex situation. The regional climatic history of the tundra-taiga interface is highly varied, and consequently it is to be expected that the forest tundra boundary zone will respond differently to climate change depending on local variations in climate, evolutionary history, soil development, and hydrology. Investigations reveal considerable stability at present in the position of the treeline and while there may be a long-term advance northwards there are oceanic regions where climatic warming may result in a retreat southwards due to increased bog development. Reinforcing this trend is an increasing human impact, particularly in the forest tundra of Russia, which forces the limit of the forested areas southwards. Local variations will therefore require continued observation and research, as they will be of considerable importance economically as well as for ecology and conservation.
对于苔原 - 泰加林交错带将如何应对全球变暖这一问题，直观且符合逻辑的答案是它应该向北移动，许多潜在树线迁移模型也反映了这一点。如果气候变暖持续数百年或数千年，向北移动可能是最终结果。然而，对整个环极地范围的苔原 - 泰加林交错带进行更仔细的研究后发现情况更为复杂。苔原 - 泰加林交错带的区域气候历史差异很大，因此可以预期，森林苔原边界带将根据当地气候、进化历史、土壤发育和水文情况的不同，对气候变化做出不同反应。调查显示，目前树线位置相当稳定，虽然可能会有向北的长期推进，但在一些海洋区域，由于沼泽地增加，气候变暖可能导致向南退缩。人类影响的不断增加强化了这一趋势，特别是在俄罗斯的森林苔原地区，这迫使森林区域的界限向南推移。因此，局部差异需要持续观测和研究，因为它们在经济以及生态和保护方面都具有相当重要的意义。
