Cooper Keith, Davies Ruth, Roderick Paul, Chase Debbie, Raftery James
School of Management, University of Southampton, UK.
Health Care Manag Sci. 2002 Nov;5(4):259-67. doi: 10.1023/a:1020378022303.
A discrete event simulation models the progress of patients who have had a coronary event, through their treatment pathways and subsequent coronary events. The main risk factors in the model are age, sex, history of previous events and the extent of the coronary vessel disease. The model parameters are based on data collected from epidemiological studies of incidence and prognosis, efficacy studies. national surveys and treatment audits. The simulation results were validated against different sources of data. The initial results show that increasing revascularisation has considerable implications for resource use but has little impact on patient mortality.
离散事件模拟通过治疗路径和后续冠状动脉事件来模拟发生过冠状动脉事件的患者的病情进展。该模型中的主要风险因素包括年龄、性别、既往病史以及冠状动脉疾病的程度。模型参数基于从发病率和预后的流行病学研究、疗效研究、全国调查以及治疗审计中收集的数据。模拟结果通过不同来源的数据进行了验证。初步结果表明，增加血运重建对资源使用有重大影响，但对患者死亡率影响不大。
