Wiegmann Douglas A, Goh Juliana, O'Hare David
University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, Urbana-Champaign, Illinois, USA.
Hum Factors. 2002 Summer;44(2):189-97. doi: 10.1518/0018720024497871.
Visual flight rules (VFR) flight into instrument meteorological conditions (IMC) is a major safety hazard in general aviation. In this study we examined pilots' decisions to continue or divert from a VFR flight into IMC during a dynamic simulation of a cross-country flight. Pilots encountered IMC either early or later into the flight, and the amount of time and distance pilots flew into the adverse weather prior to diverting was recorded. Results revealed that pilots who encountered the deteriorating weather earlier in the flight flew longer into the weather prior to diverting and had more optimistic estimates of weather conditions than did pilots who encountered the deteriorating weather later in the flight. Both the time and distance traveled into the weather prior to diverting were negatively correlated with pilots' previous flight experience. These findings suggest that VFR flight into IMC may be attributable, at least in part, to poor situation assessment and experience rather than to motivational judgment that induces risk-taking behavior as more time and effort are invested in a flight. Actual or potential applications of this research include the design of interventions that focus on improving weather evaluation skills in addition to addressing risk-taking attitudes.
目视飞行规则（VFR）飞行进入仪表气象条件（IMC）是通用航空中的一项重大安全隐患。在本研究中，我们在一次越野飞行的动态模拟过程中，考察了飞行员在VFR飞行进入IMC时决定继续飞行还是转向的情况。飞行员在飞行过程中过早或过晚遇到IMC，并记录了飞行员在转向之前飞入不利天气的时间和距离。结果显示，在飞行中较早遇到天气恶化的飞行员，在转向之前飞入天气的时间更长，并且对天气状况的估计比在飞行中较晚遇到天气恶化的飞行员更为乐观。转向之前飞入天气的时间和距离均与飞行员之前的飞行经验呈负相关。这些发现表明，VFR飞行进入IMC至少部分可归因于糟糕的态势评估和经验，而非随着在飞行中投入更多时间和精力而引发冒险行为的动机判断。本研究的实际或潜在应用包括设计干预措施，除了处理冒险态度之外，还侧重于提高天气评估技能。
