School of Aviation, Massey University, New Zealand.
School of Aviation, Massey University, New Zealand.
Appl Ergon. 2017 Nov;65:200-208. doi: 10.1016/j.apergo.2017.06.019. Epub 2017 Jul 5.
Pilots who decide to continue a flight into deteriorating weather conditions, rather than turn back or divert, are a significant cause of fatal crashes in general aviation. Earlier research has suggested that cognitive biases such as the anchoring effect and confirmation bias are implicated in many decisions to continue into worsening weather. In this study, we explored whether a simple debiasing technique, 'considering the alternative', reduced the effect of these two potentially fatal biases. Despite the study being adequately powered, our attempts to reduce the effects of biases were both unsuccessful. Negative findings such as these are particularly useful in aviation, as they can provide information on what does not work in this high stakes industry, even though such strategies may work elsewhere.
飞行员在决定继续在恶化的天气条件下飞行，而不是折返或改道时，是通用航空中致命坠机的一个重要原因。早期的研究表明，在许多继续在恶化天气中飞行的决定中，锚定效应和确认偏差等认知偏差是起作用的。在这项研究中，我们探讨了一种简单的去偏技术，即“考虑替代方案”，是否能降低这两种潜在致命偏差的影响。尽管这项研究有足够的效力，但我们试图降低偏差影响的尝试都没有成功。像这样的负面结果在航空领域特别有用，因为它们可以提供有关在这个高风险行业中哪些方法不起作用的信息，尽管这些策略在其他地方可能有效。
